Should You Buy a Home in San Diego Now or Wait for Rates to Drop?

by Trevor Landress

Nobody can time mortgage rates, so the choice to buy in San Diego now or wait should come from your budget and your plans. Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on October 8, 2026. If rates fall later, you may be able to refinance. If prices rise while you wait, you cannot undo that.

I'm Trevor Landress, a San Diego REALTOR® with Coldwell Banker West and part of the Campbell Group, a three-generation real estate team. This guide lays out what the data says right now and how to think about the decision.

The short answer

The 30-year average was 7.40% on October 8, 2026 (Freddie Mac).
San Diego County's median price was $1,099,000 in July 2026, up 5.7% from a year earlier (C.A.R.).
Homes sold in a median of 19 days in July, and inventory was 2.9 months (C.A.R.).
If you can afford today's payment comfortably, the rate alone is not a reason to wait.
If today's payment stretches you, waiting and saving may be the better plan.

What are rates doing right now?

The Federal Reserve raised its target rate at its September 16, 2026 meeting. FOX LA reported on September 23 that Treasury yields, which mortgage rates follow closely, were near the highest in two decades, according to Reuters.

Freddie Mac's survey is the benchmark most news stories use. Its 30-year average was 7.40% on October 8, 2026. C.A.R. reported that the statewide average rate in July was 6.54%.

What is the San Diego market doing?

San Diego County, July 2026 (C.A.R.)	Figure
Median price, existing single-family homes	$1,099,000
Change from July 2025	up 5.7%
Change from June 2026	up 1.3%
Median days to sell	19 days (24 a year earlier)
Unsold inventory index	2.9 months (2.7 in June)
Sales versus June	down 6.7%
Sales versus July 2025	up 4.5%

Source: C.A.R. data reported by KPBS on August 17, 2026. In plain words: prices were still rising, homes were selling in under three weeks, and inventory was still below the 3.5 months C.A.R. reported a year earlier. C.A.R.'s chief economist said higher rates and market swings weighed on buyer demand, but the market showed resilience.

What could waiting cost you?

Here is a simple example on an $860,000 loan, which is 80% of C.A.R.'s Q2 2026 San Diego median price. I picked 6.54% because it was the statewide average C.A.R. reported for July. This is a hypothetical comparison, not a forecast.

If your rate is	Principal and interest	Per year
7.40%	$5,954 a month	$71,448
6.54%	$5,458 a month	$65,496

The gap is about $496 a month, or $5,952 a year. That is what a lower rate could save. The table does not count the rent you pay while you wait. It also does not count what prices might do.

What could buying now cost you?

A higher monthly payment than you would have at a lower rate.
Refinance costs later. A refinance has its own closing costs, and a lower rate is never guaranteed.
Less room in your budget if rates stay high.

What does a refinance involve?

A refinance replaces your current loan with a new one. You apply, the lender reviews your finances and the home, and you pay closing costs again. If rates fall enough, the savings can outweigh those costs. If they do not, the refinance may not be worth it.

That is why I treat a future refinance as a possible bonus, not a plan. Buy only on a payment you can carry if rates stay where they are.

Why does the decision depend on you?

A rate is a market number. Your life is a personal one. A job change, a growing family or a lease ending can matter more than a half point. The same is true in reverse. If your job is unstable or your savings are thin, buying at any rate can be a bad move.

How do you decide?

Test your budget at today's 7.40% rate. If the payment is comfortable, rates are not your main risk.
Decide how long you plan to stay. A short stay makes buying costs harder to earn back.
Check your job, savings and debt. These matter more than a rate headline.
Compare the cost of renting and buying for your own situation, not an average.
If you wait, set a date and a payment number that tells you when to act.

This is not a guarantee

Prices, rates and loan rules change, and every buyer is different. The numbers in this post are averages, benchmarks or my own examples. They are not a quote, a prediction or a guarantee. Talk to a lender about your own situation. No one can promise where rates or prices will go.

My advice for San Diego buyers

Do not buy only because a headline says rates will fall, or wait only because one says they will rise.
Buy when the payment fits your budget and your plans, not when the market feels right.
Get preapproved now so you know your numbers if the right home shows up.
Keep a cash cushion after closing.
Re-run your numbers whenever rates move.

Call or text me at (619) 402-4614 or send me a message.

Call or text (619) 402-4614 Contact Trevor Landress

Related guides

Frequently asked questions

Should I buy a house in San Diego now or wait?

It depends on your budget, how long you plan to stay and your savings. If you can comfortably afford today's payment, rates alone are not a reason to wait.

What is the current 30-year mortgage rate?

Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on October 8, 2026. It updates every Thursday.

Can I refinance if rates drop later?

You may be able to, but it is never guaranteed. A refinance also has closing costs, so run the numbers before counting on it.

Will San Diego home prices go down if I wait?

No one can promise that. C.A.R. reported that the San Diego County median price was $1,099,000 in July 2026, up 5.7% from July 2025.

How much does waiting for a lower rate save?

On an $860,000 loan, 6.54% instead of 7.40% would lower principal and interest by about $496 a month. That is a hypothetical calculation, not a prediction.

About the author

Trevor Landress is a San Diego REALTOR® with Coldwell Banker West (DRE# 02126901). He was born and raised in San Diego and has been licensed since 2021. Trevor helps homeowners sell, guides first-time buyers through the home buying process and assists investors with their next acquisition. His work includes negotiating offers, analyzing market trends, building pricing strategies and running marketing campaigns for his listings.

He serves clients across San Diego County, from coastal communities like La Jolla, Del Mar and Carlsbad to neighborhoods inland. Trevor is part of the Campbell Group, a three-generation real estate team, and he and the Campbell Group consistently rank as a top producing team at Coldwell Banker West each month. He writes these guides to help San Diego buyers and sellers navigate an ever-changing market. To talk through your plans, call or text (619) 402-4614 or contact Trevor Landress.

Sources

This article is general information about the San Diego housing market and home buying. It is not financial, tax or legal advice. Rates, programs and rules change, so confirm details with your lender, a tax professional or an attorney before you act.